My bets on open models, mid-2026

We are at a pivotal moment to see if open models can keep pace with closed labs. The clear answer is no, as the capability gap between models is becoming increasingly complex. This dynamic is intertwined with funding for open models, who builds them, and techniques that enable fast-following. The capability gap is a key signal amid complex forces shaping supply and demand. Demand for open models is high, with many individuals, organizations, and sovereigns seeking them, while supply is dictated by economics. The question of which business strategies support releasing open models remains open.